WE WERE ALL WRONG. That seems obvious, right? But we were more than wrong. We were laughably oblivious. The entire Washington political-media complex completely missed the mark. Not by inches or feet, but by miles. For a year and a half, we scoffed at those who said the polls were wrong. The polling industry is broken. We had our eyes trained on prognosticators and pundits — but they were all wrong, too. There will be plenty of time to dissect it all. The joke is on us.
But now, Washington has to face a few realities it has spent little time focusing on:
— D.C. IS NOW ALL RED: Donald Trump is the next president. The House is Republican. The Senate is Republican. That is a serious shift of power, and a serious change to the capital. We haven’t seen one-party rule in D.C. since 2010. Democrats used it pass Obamacare, the stimulus package and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform bill. Republicans hated all-Democratic rule — and made the Dems pay for it. Democrats can now expect that Republicans will run the board legislatively. They made a set of promises. It’s what swept them into power. Expect them to try to fulfill those promises. Democrats had an easier time — Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid had a firm grip over their caucuses. Republicans have had a far more difficult time staying in line. The GOP will now need to get in a room, and figure out specifically what they stand for, and how to put that into legislative language.
When Election Day dawned, almost all the pollsters, analytics nerds and political insiders in the country had Hillary Clinton waltzing into the White House.
By the time polls had closed nationwide on Tuesday night, those projections had been left in shambles — just like the ones a year ago that all but ruled out the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.
Headed into Election Day, polling evangelist Nate Silver’s 538 website put Clinton’s odds at winning the White House at about 72 percent. By midnight, the site had more than flipped its odds making, giving Trump an 84 percent chance of winning.
Trump had notched hugely significant upset victories in Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin — critical swing states where almost every public poll and most private projections had shown Clinton ahead.
The Republican nominee’s surprisingly strong performance, which left the race on a razor’s edge at the publication of this story, seemed to at least partly validate his claims that many polls “just put out phony numbers.”
And it left pollsters and operatives struggling to explain how everyone had been so far off.
Robert Blizzard, a veteran Republican pollster who had been an outspoken Trump critic, tweeted “Where the heck is the vaunted Democratic turnout machine? The RNC crushed this.”
Pro-Trump operatives argued that even when some polls hinted at Trump’s strength, it was ignored or explained away by the media and analysts.
“Most of the press and folks in DC were science deniers when it came to this election,” said veteran GOP operative Curt Anderson, an adviser to a pro-Trump super PAC. “Even in the face of polls that showed it very close, they all said that Trump had almost no chance. It was because they couldn’t imagine it happening.”
He added that “they are in a bubble, and that bubble has just been burst.”
They weren’t only wrong, they were delusional and complicit. These folks were delusional in their collective disbelief and their projecting of their wants and desires on the American public. They were complicit in a crafted propaganda machine with Clinton, Podesta and Soros pulling their strings. That is what they all have to acknowledge today. They were not just wrong, they were criminal.
The media kept referring to the Trump voters as particular segments of the population, but guess what? Those voting for President-elect Trump represented a broad cross-section of our nation. Today’s headlines are calling it an upset, when in reality it wasn’t. If they’d been paying attention and had been honest, they would have seen that Trump had a really good shot at winning this. Any idiot could have seen that just from the size of the crowds both candidates were drawing.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out and where they go from here in what’s now a Republican government and a president-elect who doesn’t have a problem with calling them out.