Politico: We Were All Wrong

From Politico, 11-9-16:

president-elect-trump

President-elect, Donald Trump. Photo courtesy Getty Images

WE WERE ALL WRONG. That seems obvious, right? But we were more than wrong. We were laughably oblivious. The entire Washington political-media complex completely missed the mark. Not by inches or feet, but by miles. For a year and a half, we scoffed at those who said the polls were wrong. The polling industry is broken. We had our eyes trained on prognosticators and pundits — but they were all wrong, too. There will be plenty of time to dissect it all. The joke is on us.

But now, Washington has to face a few realities it has spent little time focusing on:

— D.C. IS NOW ALL RED: Donald Trump is the next president. The House is Republican. The Senate is Republican. That is a serious shift of power, and a serious change to the capital. We haven’t seen one-party rule in D.C. since 2010. Democrats used it pass Obamacare, the stimulus package and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform bill. Republicans hated all-Democratic rule — and made the Dems pay for it. Democrats can now expect that Republicans will run the board legislatively. They made a set of promises. It’s what swept them into power. Expect them to try to fulfill those promises. Democrats had an easier time — Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid had a firm grip over their caucuses. Republicans have had a far more difficult time staying in line. The GOP will now need to get in a room, and figure out specifically what they stand for, and how to put that into legislative language.

When Election Day dawned, almost all the pollsters, analytics nerds and political insiders in the country had Hillary Clinton waltzing into the White House.

By the time polls had closed nationwide on Tuesday night, those projections had been left in shambles — just like the ones a year ago that all but ruled out the possibility of Donald Trump winning the Republican Party’s presidential nomination.

Headed into Election Day, polling evangelist Nate Silver’s 538 website put Clinton’s odds at winning the White House at about 72 percent. By midnight, the site had more than flipped its odds making, giving Trump an 84 percent chance of winning.

Trump had notched hugely significant upset victories in Florida, North Carolina and Wisconsin — critical swing states where almost every public poll and most private projections had shown Clinton ahead.

The Republican nominee’s surprisingly strong performance, which left the race on a razor’s edge at the publication of this story, seemed to at least partly validate his claims that many polls “just put out phony numbers.”

And it left pollsters and operatives struggling to explain how everyone had been so far off.

Robert Blizzard, a veteran Republican pollster who had been an outspoken Trump critic, tweeted “Where the heck is the vaunted Democratic turnout machine? The RNC crushed this.”

Pro-Trump operatives argued that even when some polls hinted at Trump’s strength, it was ignored or explained away by the media and analysts.

“Most of the press and folks in DC were science deniers when it came to this election,” said veteran GOP operative Curt Anderson, an adviser to a pro-Trump super PAC. “Even in the face of polls that showed it very close, they all said that Trump had almost no chance. It was because they couldn’t imagine it happening.”

He added that “they are in a bubble, and that bubble has just been burst.”

~~~~~~~~~

They weren’t only wrong, they were delusional and complicit. These folks were delusional in their collective disbelief and their projecting of their wants and desires on the American public. They were complicit in a crafted propaganda machine with Clinton, Podesta and Soros pulling their strings. That is what they all have to acknowledge today. They were not just wrong, they were criminal.

The media kept referring to the Trump voters as particular segments of the population, but guess what? Those voting for President-elect Trump represented a broad cross-section of our nation. Today’s headlines are calling it an upset, when in reality it wasn’t. If they’d been paying attention and had been honest, they would have seen that Trump had a really good shot at winning this. Any idiot could have seen that just from the size of the crowds both candidates were drawing.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out and where they go from here in what’s now a Republican government and a president-elect who doesn’t have a problem with calling them out.

~Kathy



Categories: Political

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13 replies

  1. When we agreed back in March to go on a cruise with friends in November, it didn’t sink in with me that I would be away at election time. I probably wouldn’t have gone if I had realized (but don’t tell my friends that). The last I checked before heading to sea, Clinton was up by 4 points according to the polls. After holding out hope for Romney in spite of the polls last time, this time I resigned myself to the prospect that she would probably win to spare myself of that terrible feeling of disappointment. There was a TV in our room but my husband gave me the stink-eye any time I suggested turning it on (I was supposed to be enjoying the view that he had paid a lot of hard earned money for). On Wednesday morning I couldn’t stand it anymore and decided I may as well get it over with, so I turned on the news to a blaring headline that said, “Trump Wins!” We were elated. Unfortunately we didn’t get the internet upgrade (for a mere $35 a day!), so I wasn’t able to comment. That was painful but the thought of HRC going down in defeat did make the trip that much more wonderful.

    My confidence in Trump’s ability to win changed multiple times throughout the election. When he first threw his hat in, I believed he would beat HC easily because, for all of his faults, he was the one candidate who would not think twice about calling her a liar right to her face. As Democrats know all too well, that kind of personalization (which Republicans usually consider themselves above, unfortunately) can be very powerful. I had my doubts, though, when Trump’s mouth became his own worst enemy. He nearly blew it and WikiLeaks deserves a big share of the credit as well, because I’m sure the revelations of what goes on behind the Clinton façade helped cement that picture of HRC as a corrupt, lying politician.

    I honestly don’t know what went wrong with the polls because while it’s true that the leftists didn’t want to believe Trump could win, pollsters usually have a vested interest in being right because their credibility (and livelihood) are on the line. IMO Trump was ultimately helped by reluctant conservatives like myself who decided that they just couldn’t let HRC have it without a fight, but I’m sure it was a mix of several factors creating the perfect storm against Hillary. Your characterization of the media as “delusional and complicit” are spot-on.

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    • Maybe more people were silent than I thought, but from the crowds he was drawing and the Trump fans comments on all the sites, I just didn’t see it.

      It seems the pollster didn’t see it either or they bought into the propagandized headlines more so this year. It just shows what a sure thing she was supposed to be and what a joke they thought Trump was.

      Not knowing is the worst part – glad you turned on the TV.

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      • Crowd size is a hard thing to evaluate on because different types of people are more likely to go to campaign rallies. Bernie Sanders had record crowds too, but look what happened to him. Like Trump, his supporters tended to be more of the fan club mentality IMO.

        This election indicates that the traditional polling models are flawed. There were people predicting a Trump win, but they were using unconventional methods based upon things like social media activity, turnout in the primaries and, yes, crowd size. The old pollsters had better get with the times.

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    • I think the polls couldn’t predict the 7 million or so fewer Democrat voters whose support for Hillary was very tepid, the people that had better things to do that day than waste time standing in line to vote for the oh so dislikeable Hillary and four more years of the SOS. On the flip side, there were people like me that nearly talked themselves into not voting at all then at the last minute got off our asses, jumped in the car and did what had to be done. Those are the unpredictable decisions that even the best of polls can’t predict.

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  2. It was not just the Trump win which they had wrong. Until the returns started coming in, many were also opining about a Senate led by Chuck Schumacher, and positing a Democrat takeover in the House.

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    • Glad you pointed that out, Salty. I thought about him last night and figured he was throwing as big a hissy fit as I imagine Hillary was behind closed doors. Maybe we’ll get lucky and he’ll move to Canada with his ditzy daughter.

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    • WT…? Don’t know if it was auto-correct, fat fingers, or old fashioned brain phart, but that should read “Chuck Schumer” not “Chuck Schumacher”. Although, I do think such a well renowned baseball instructor would be a better choice than ditzy Amy’s cousin.

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  3. The most satisfying aspect of this result is not that Trump won as much as the voters bent over and decisively told Hillary to “kiss my ass.”

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    • Buying into her own propaganda, she probably thought she had it in the bag, so yeah, that’s a very satisfying feeling for us – for her, not so much.

      Another bright spot is that the investigation of the Clinton Foundation can be stepped up in January, as can the email investigation. It can be reopened in January when we get a new AG and FBI director in place.

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  4. You are exactly right there, calling this an upset was really disdainful. . . .

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    • Today the media is saying that Trump won because of all his ‘silent’ supporters. Apparently they were so busy kissing Hillary’s butt they didn’t see the thousands of people at his rallies who were anything but silent. They’ll never get it right unless they’re forced into it.

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  5. Amen! Political correctness will be banned and adults will be in charge for a change.

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    • As long as there are liberals drawing a breath, I don’t see political correctness going away.

      Adults in charge? I dunno about that – Congress didn’t change much and we still have 2 more months to suffer through with Paul Ryan and his buddy O.

      Thanks for dropping by to take a look at our drivel.

      Liked by 1 person

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