Home›Political›Will Trump Win November 8th? Can He Win November 8th? Listen to this Podcast from Daniel Horowitz, Senior Editor at Conservative Review…
Will Trump Win November 8th? Can He Win November 8th? Listen to this Podcast from Daniel Horowitz, Senior Editor at Conservative Review…
Thanks for posting Horowitz’s podcast, Aftershock. He makes some good points and a number that I can agree with, but my concern about the condemnations of Donald Trump to the point of not voting for him is where we differ. There’s no question that he’s not qualified by personality or temperament to be president, but not voting and allowing Hillary to be elected through inaction simply can’t be good for the country.
That being said, I fully support forming a new third party and assuming that it would encompass what most true conservatives really want (smaller government, less government intrusion, a return to Constitutional values, etc.), count me in.
I do, however, believe that it’s practically impossible for a new party to be a realistically viable alternative in 2020, perhaps not even in 2024. It will take at least a couple of elections, with some successes, even minimal ones, for enough of the citizenry to become convinced that it has a chance – for it to have a chance.
One thing that Trump has done that has been beneficial is essentially driving a stake through the heart of today’s established Republican Party. That’s been a long time coming and long overdue.
The result, after the 2016 elections, will be disarray among non-democrats and that won’t bode well for 2020 either unless we have a White Knight ride in to save us – and that’s not a safe bet.
I’m okay with agreeing on most everything! Like any yeeuge task Garnet92, a new party begins with the first step. It will take as long as it takes, but one thing is for sure the Dem and Repub Parties aren’t going to improve, they’re just going to continue their downward spiral. As far as Trump goes, it’s really a shame that he hasn’t done the minimum to appeal to conservatives. All he’d have to do is stick to conservative issues and hammer home the differences between conservatism and Hillary-ism…. and everything would be fine, he’d be crushing her in every battleground state. The question has to be, why does he keep moving left on issues and why did he decide to get into the gutter with the Bill Clinton crap? The demographics he’s losing don’t know first-hand about it or they just don’t care about it anymore because he’s running against Hillary, not Bill.
On the scale of evils, Trump would have to be my choice, because there is an outside chance he might do something not evil. That option doesn’t exist within Hillary.
As I said, I think we face a binary choice of subjugation or dissolution. Trump will at best delay either of those options. The Soros paid BLM will never allow a peaceful, successful transition for Trump, should he win. Hillary is a blatant criminal to at least a third of the populace, who see her supporters as likewise corrupt. A Bill of Impeachment should pass in the Lame Duck session, at the very least.
A new party will be too late for the reasons I mentioned above. A Convention of States is a pipe dream, as the national government ignores the present Constitution, thus won’t respect any changes either. You can go thru the motions, but they are just a form of emotional, mental masturbation, and do nothing to end the ongoing subjugation.
The dissolution channel could occur many ways, with either slimeball winning. Neither will have a semblance of legitimacy for the other side, regardless of the size of victory. Secession movements can grow quickly from nullification of vile national policy, and lack of leadership.
How’s that ancient Chinese curse go? “May you live in interesting times.”
Well on the issue of the convention of states, I posted here my belief that such a process would be useless for exactly those reasons, but it’s no more useless than voting in rigged elections where only a small trickle of real conservatives can get elected via the Republican Party. In order for the convention of states to have a real effect, a third party that can grow by appealing to the disaffected of all other parties is essential, and why I that pointed out somewhere in these comments —the two, convention of states and a new party, go hand in hand.
Unfortunately It dropped out before it finished but the drift I got was conservatives are broke morally and politically. I believe that people who think this way are broken period. The problem must first be correctly diagnosed. Republicans produce a blueprint of their values each election cycle. They post it and say amen then promptly throw it in the trash… this is the real problem. Truly this is the moral failure of the Republican Party. This party has turned into it is all about me but no one can agree on who me is and what I really stand for along with a couple of hundred million other me’s. We don’t need more questions we need more answers and solutions for America about: Definition of Life including when is there life, economical direction and a long term plan for; businesses, employees, trade policy, monetary standards and unemployment policy that works, Foreign Policy for operating in the hostel world we live in today, Terrorism period, Emigration Policy Period, Comprehensive review correction and publication of rules of war, Police intervention, citizens rights to self protection and what that means today. Nuclear Superpower needs including proliferation or non-proliferation and religion, peace, UN, NATO. Also Term Limits. Folks if you look at all of these their is a clear difference in what each candidate claims to believe. Soooo read, learn and make a clear informed decision before you vote.
I like you posted it. A third party will probably be viable after this election. Here is probably the realistic breakdown Democrats 35% Republicans 35% other party 30%. When this happens the real lying; ops,politicking will begin.
Daniel Horowitz makes some very good points, AfterShock. As far as the creation of a new party goes, I think it may be time, but it will be no easy feat. There was serious, crafty calculation behind the Clinton campaign motto of “Stronger Together.” It was directed at Democrats who might be tempted to stray from the Party, to remind them that there is strength in numbers. As long as Democrats can pull all their usual special interest groups together, they represent an almost impossible challenge to opposition parties that are founded on shared principles because, as we just witnessed in this latest presidential primary, those who put principles as a priority are a shrinking minority. The history of the founding of the Republican Party gives some hope that it isn’t impossible, but nowadays a majority of Americans are dependent upon the nanny state and that’s a whole different ballgame.
Sorry I didn’t answer the question of your post. I really don’t know.
I have a little different take on that CW. I think this is a golden opportunity. There are huge numbers when you break down the internals of polls taken of Republican, independent, black, Hispanic and also millennial voters. Those groups along with conservatives are fed up with what they’ve been given but don’t feel they have anywhere else to go. Many Democrat minority voters admit the Democrats have done more harm than good, but — for good reason — they don’t trust the Republican Party any more than we do. Likewise for millennials. While millennials are very libertarian on social issues, they’re polling as majority conservative on economic issues. There are also big numbers of Gen-X’rs that are finally fed up with all the debt, the insane cost of healthcare because of Obamacare and the overall direction of the country since Obama took office. Arguably, there has never been a better time to start such a movement. But as I said to curtmilr, the only way to fix the more fundamental problems is still convention of states because the establishment-ridden congress sure won’t. That said, even to make the result of a successful amending of the constitution work as intended, there’s going to have to be a new political force to stop the establishment from ignoring it as they do now. A third party would actually become the real second party because more and more people are seeing the Democrats and Republicans as one in the same.
So where were all these supposed conservatives and other fed up people during the primaries? How did we end up with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton?
I don’t want to be a party poop, AfterShock, honestly I don’t, but other bloggers have long been telling me that the electorate is REALLY conservative, and that we’re just being out-foxed by the establishment or the MSM or whatever. I don’t buy it anymore, especially when some of the very people who were telling me that the silent conservative majority exists are the same ones who gave us Donald Trump! At what point do we stop and ask ourselves if we’re talking about the same thing when we claim to be “conservative?”
In the past we might have been able to explain this dichotomy as a consequence of our inability to get good conservatives with name-recognition on the ballot. That wasn’t the case this time. We had a proven conservative out there and not only did he struggle to compete with the RINOs (Jeb Bush and John Kasich) and the Trumpbots, but he’s practically been made an outcast for not endorsing Trump. In addition, pollsters are suggesting that Republicans are likely to LOSE seats in congress this election. That doesn’t logically coincide with some silent conservative majority.
Conservatives – true conservatives (i.e. people sincerely dedicated to small, limited government and the Constitution who will walk the walk and talk the talk) are a small minority. We need the conservative-lites if we are ever going to beat progressives/Democrats, which is why this election in particular was such a tragedy. We had a battle for the soul of the Party and we lost.
If vanilla ice cream is the best-selling ice cream year after year, at some point I will cease believing those who insist that everybody really prefers chocolate.
I don’t think the electorate is particularly conservative or liberal CW, that’s why I think a third party can work. The one thing they seem to have in common is being sick of the status quo and the two dominant parties. That spells opportunity to me. We’ve had a problem selling conservatism outright because it’s so long been linked with the Republican Party, which has NO credibility beyond its’ crop of life-long sycophants. At the very least giving a new party a try, is worth the effort.
Considering the answer to your first sentence CW, the fed up general and fed up conservatives were split between several good candidates for most of the 2015/2016 year. But the Pat Buchanan nationalist base thatTrump tapped into was with him from day one. That hardcore base is estimated at 25% to 30%. That was enough to insulate him given the rigged-for-RINO’s primary calendar and the estimated 1.5 billion dollars in free airtime the networks gave Trump over every other candidate. The rest of the answer is, the disaffected and fed-up were there, they just didn’t have one candidate out of the rest they could agree on in time to make a difference.
Don’t have time to listen now, but will this afternoon before the Cowboys play.
BUT, if Hillary wins, I suspect it’l be too late for a new party to resolve the problems electorally.
Why? Because she will open the floodgates even wider to immigration from ever source EXCEPT western Europe and the Commonwealth. The Democrats path to perpetual power is a set of policies that guarantee the destruction of traditional American culture, and, ultimately, Western Civilization itself.
They envision world ecumenicalism and shared prosperity, but will reap a Tower of Babel, and universal shared poverty & misery.
On that bright note, I’ll head to church and celebrate Communion.
I think curtmilr, it’s already too late to solve the problem electorally, but the entrenched elite establishment will never be gone until there’s a real alternative to their power structure. There has never been a better time to begin a third party that can appeal to the tens of millions of people that have had enough of both establishments.
As for the obvious problems that need to be addressed like term limits on congress and SCOTUS, also circumscribing the power and jurisdiction of Federal Courts including SCOTUS, those objectives can only happen via convention of states. If left to congress, it will never happen.
As for Hillary winning, unfortunately even if she lost to Trump — doubtful — he really isn’t different on policy than she is and I think he’s speaking cynically when he says he does have a different position. My take on Trump since about August of last year is that he’s one of those people that thinks the problem with BIG government is that it hasn’t been managed properly and he can make it work. I just don’t believe anything he says at this point.
I believe differently than you I think Trump is Day and Clinton is Night. Trump is way more Conservative and Hillary is completely Socialist. Trump is middle of the road Conservative. They are complete opposites.
Pesky Truth 
Thanks for posting Horowitz’s podcast, Aftershock. He makes some good points and a number that I can agree with, but my concern about the condemnations of Donald Trump to the point of not voting for him is where we differ. There’s no question that he’s not qualified by personality or temperament to be president, but not voting and allowing Hillary to be elected through inaction simply can’t be good for the country.
That being said, I fully support forming a new third party and assuming that it would encompass what most true conservatives really want (smaller government, less government intrusion, a return to Constitutional values, etc.), count me in.
I do, however, believe that it’s practically impossible for a new party to be a realistically viable alternative in 2020, perhaps not even in 2024. It will take at least a couple of elections, with some successes, even minimal ones, for enough of the citizenry to become convinced that it has a chance – for it to have a chance.
One thing that Trump has done that has been beneficial is essentially driving a stake through the heart of today’s established Republican Party. That’s been a long time coming and long overdue.
The result, after the 2016 elections, will be disarray among non-democrats and that won’t bode well for 2020 either unless we have a White Knight ride in to save us – and that’s not a safe bet.
LikeLike
I’m okay with agreeing on most everything! Like any yeeuge task Garnet92, a new party begins with the first step. It will take as long as it takes, but one thing is for sure the Dem and Repub Parties aren’t going to improve, they’re just going to continue their downward spiral. As far as Trump goes, it’s really a shame that he hasn’t done the minimum to appeal to conservatives. All he’d have to do is stick to conservative issues and hammer home the differences between conservatism and Hillary-ism…. and everything would be fine, he’d be crushing her in every battleground state. The question has to be, why does he keep moving left on issues and why did he decide to get into the gutter with the Bill Clinton crap? The demographics he’s losing don’t know first-hand about it or they just don’t care about it anymore because he’s running against Hillary, not Bill.
LikeLike
On the scale of evils, Trump would have to be my choice, because there is an outside chance he might do something not evil. That option doesn’t exist within Hillary.
As I said, I think we face a binary choice of subjugation or dissolution. Trump will at best delay either of those options. The Soros paid BLM will never allow a peaceful, successful transition for Trump, should he win. Hillary is a blatant criminal to at least a third of the populace, who see her supporters as likewise corrupt. A Bill of Impeachment should pass in the Lame Duck session, at the very least.
A new party will be too late for the reasons I mentioned above. A Convention of States is a pipe dream, as the national government ignores the present Constitution, thus won’t respect any changes either. You can go thru the motions, but they are just a form of emotional, mental masturbation, and do nothing to end the ongoing subjugation.
The dissolution channel could occur many ways, with either slimeball winning. Neither will have a semblance of legitimacy for the other side, regardless of the size of victory. Secession movements can grow quickly from nullification of vile national policy, and lack of leadership.
How’s that ancient Chinese curse go? “May you live in interesting times.”
LikeLike
Well on the issue of the convention of states, I posted here my belief that such a process would be useless for exactly those reasons, but it’s no more useless than voting in rigged elections where only a small trickle of real conservatives can get elected via the Republican Party. In order for the convention of states to have a real effect, a third party that can grow by appealing to the disaffected of all other parties is essential, and why I that pointed out somewhere in these comments —the two, convention of states and a new party, go hand in hand.
LikeLike
Reblogged this on Jack Carson Pickard.
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What’s your opinion of the podcast? Like it, dislike it, not sure about it?
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Unfortunately It dropped out before it finished but the drift I got was conservatives are broke morally and politically. I believe that people who think this way are broken period. The problem must first be correctly diagnosed. Republicans produce a blueprint of their values each election cycle. They post it and say amen then promptly throw it in the trash… this is the real problem. Truly this is the moral failure of the Republican Party. This party has turned into it is all about me but no one can agree on who me is and what I really stand for along with a couple of hundred million other me’s. We don’t need more questions we need more answers and solutions for America about: Definition of Life including when is there life, economical direction and a long term plan for; businesses, employees, trade policy, monetary standards and unemployment policy that works, Foreign Policy for operating in the hostel world we live in today, Terrorism period, Emigration Policy Period, Comprehensive review correction and publication of rules of war, Police intervention, citizens rights to self protection and what that means today. Nuclear Superpower needs including proliferation or non-proliferation and religion, peace, UN, NATO. Also Term Limits. Folks if you look at all of these their is a clear difference in what each candidate claims to believe. Soooo read, learn and make a clear informed decision before you vote.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I like you posted it. A third party will probably be viable after this election. Here is probably the realistic breakdown Democrats 35% Republicans 35% other party 30%. When this happens the real lying; ops,politicking will begin.
LikeLiked by 2 people
Daniel Horowitz makes some very good points, AfterShock. As far as the creation of a new party goes, I think it may be time, but it will be no easy feat. There was serious, crafty calculation behind the Clinton campaign motto of “Stronger Together.” It was directed at Democrats who might be tempted to stray from the Party, to remind them that there is strength in numbers. As long as Democrats can pull all their usual special interest groups together, they represent an almost impossible challenge to opposition parties that are founded on shared principles because, as we just witnessed in this latest presidential primary, those who put principles as a priority are a shrinking minority. The history of the founding of the Republican Party gives some hope that it isn’t impossible, but nowadays a majority of Americans are dependent upon the nanny state and that’s a whole different ballgame.
Sorry I didn’t answer the question of your post. I really don’t know.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I have a little different take on that CW. I think this is a golden opportunity. There are huge numbers when you break down the internals of polls taken of Republican, independent, black, Hispanic and also millennial voters. Those groups along with conservatives are fed up with what they’ve been given but don’t feel they have anywhere else to go. Many Democrat minority voters admit the Democrats have done more harm than good, but — for good reason — they don’t trust the Republican Party any more than we do. Likewise for millennials. While millennials are very libertarian on social issues, they’re polling as majority conservative on economic issues. There are also big numbers of Gen-X’rs that are finally fed up with all the debt, the insane cost of healthcare because of Obamacare and the overall direction of the country since Obama took office. Arguably, there has never been a better time to start such a movement. But as I said to curtmilr, the only way to fix the more fundamental problems is still convention of states because the establishment-ridden congress sure won’t. That said, even to make the result of a successful amending of the constitution work as intended, there’s going to have to be a new political force to stop the establishment from ignoring it as they do now. A third party would actually become the real second party because more and more people are seeing the Democrats and Republicans as one in the same.
LikeLike
So where were all these supposed conservatives and other fed up people during the primaries? How did we end up with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton?
I don’t want to be a party poop, AfterShock, honestly I don’t, but other bloggers have long been telling me that the electorate is REALLY conservative, and that we’re just being out-foxed by the establishment or the MSM or whatever. I don’t buy it anymore, especially when some of the very people who were telling me that the silent conservative majority exists are the same ones who gave us Donald Trump! At what point do we stop and ask ourselves if we’re talking about the same thing when we claim to be “conservative?”
In the past we might have been able to explain this dichotomy as a consequence of our inability to get good conservatives with name-recognition on the ballot. That wasn’t the case this time. We had a proven conservative out there and not only did he struggle to compete with the RINOs (Jeb Bush and John Kasich) and the Trumpbots, but he’s practically been made an outcast for not endorsing Trump. In addition, pollsters are suggesting that Republicans are likely to LOSE seats in congress this election. That doesn’t logically coincide with some silent conservative majority.
Conservatives – true conservatives (i.e. people sincerely dedicated to small, limited government and the Constitution who will walk the walk and talk the talk) are a small minority. We need the conservative-lites if we are ever going to beat progressives/Democrats, which is why this election in particular was such a tragedy. We had a battle for the soul of the Party and we lost.
If vanilla ice cream is the best-selling ice cream year after year, at some point I will cease believing those who insist that everybody really prefers chocolate.
LikeLike
I don’t think the electorate is particularly conservative or liberal CW, that’s why I think a third party can work. The one thing they seem to have in common is being sick of the status quo and the two dominant parties. That spells opportunity to me. We’ve had a problem selling conservatism outright because it’s so long been linked with the Republican Party, which has NO credibility beyond its’ crop of life-long sycophants. At the very least giving a new party a try, is worth the effort.
LikeLike
If we get a viable new party with a true conservative platform, I’m in (assuming that the Republican is lost for good).
LikeLiked by 1 person
Considering the answer to your first sentence CW, the fed up general and fed up conservatives were split between several good candidates for most of the 2015/2016 year. But the Pat Buchanan nationalist base thatTrump tapped into was with him from day one. That hardcore base is estimated at 25% to 30%. That was enough to insulate him given the rigged-for-RINO’s primary calendar and the estimated 1.5 billion dollars in free airtime the networks gave Trump over every other candidate. The rest of the answer is, the disaffected and fed-up were there, they just didn’t have one candidate out of the rest they could agree on in time to make a difference.
LikeLike
Don’t have time to listen now, but will this afternoon before the Cowboys play.
BUT, if Hillary wins, I suspect it’l be too late for a new party to resolve the problems electorally.
Why? Because she will open the floodgates even wider to immigration from ever source EXCEPT western Europe and the Commonwealth. The Democrats path to perpetual power is a set of policies that guarantee the destruction of traditional American culture, and, ultimately, Western Civilization itself.
They envision world ecumenicalism and shared prosperity, but will reap a Tower of Babel, and universal shared poverty & misery.
On that bright note, I’ll head to church and celebrate Communion.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I think curtmilr, it’s already too late to solve the problem electorally, but the entrenched elite establishment will never be gone until there’s a real alternative to their power structure. There has never been a better time to begin a third party that can appeal to the tens of millions of people that have had enough of both establishments.
As for the obvious problems that need to be addressed like term limits on congress and SCOTUS, also circumscribing the power and jurisdiction of Federal Courts including SCOTUS, those objectives can only happen via convention of states. If left to congress, it will never happen.
As for Hillary winning, unfortunately even if she lost to Trump — doubtful — he really isn’t different on policy than she is and I think he’s speaking cynically when he says he does have a different position. My take on Trump since about August of last year is that he’s one of those people that thinks the problem with BIG government is that it hasn’t been managed properly and he can make it work. I just don’t believe anything he says at this point.
LikeLike
I believe differently than you I think Trump is Day and Clinton is Night. Trump is way more Conservative and Hillary is completely Socialist. Trump is middle of the road Conservative. They are complete opposites.
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I don’t think I believe Trump is way more conservative but I agree Hillary is a total nightmare on or off Elm Street.
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