Shock: Ted Cruz Takes Lead in National Poll Over Donald Trump for First Time

From:,  by Mike Flynn,  on Apr 5, 2016,  see the article HERE.

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, center, smiles during a news conference with conservative Congressional Republicans who persuaded the House leadership to include defunding the Affordable Care Act as part of legislation to prevent a government shutdown, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2013. Sen. Cruz is flanked by Rep. Matt Salmon, R-Ariz., left, and Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, right. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

For the first time in the Republican primary, Reuters’ tracking poll shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) leading Donald Trump among likely voters in the Republican primaries.

This is also the first time Donald Trump hasn’t led the tracking poll in 2016.

Cruz has the support of 39 percent of likely Republican voters nationwide, just ahead of Donald Trump, who has 37 percent support. Ohio Governor John Kasich is a distant third, with 23 percent support.

In the broader survey of all Republicans, rather than likely voters, Trump still has a four-point lead. This, however, is sharply down from the 28-point lead he enjoyed in the middle of March.

Trump’s current support among Republican likely voters is the lowest since the end of February, when Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and Ben Carson were still in the race. Since the race narrowed to three remaining candidates, Trump has enjoyed the support of almost half of Republican voters, or 45 percent.

Trump’s collapse in the Reuters tracking poll began on March 26, when the GOP frontrunner topped out at 48 percent support. Since then, Trump has lost 13 points of support. He gained two points back in today’s tracking poll.

The Reuters tracking poll is based on a five-day rolling average of results. Each day, a new round of daily interviews are added to the tracking poll, while older interviews are dropped from the tracking poll. As a result, there can be daily blips in the poll. The overall trend, however, is unmistakable. Trump has lost a considerable amount of support in the past two weeks and Cruz’s support has surged.

The drop in Trump’s support came just days after he retweeted an unflattering photograph of Cruz’s wife, Heidi. In the following days, the campaigns engaged in a war of words over the candidates’ spouses. Trump also angered many on both sides of the abortion debate when he said in an interview that women who get abortions should be legally punished. The Trump campaign later clarified his remarks.

The drop in support for Trump comes at a critical time in his campaign. While he leads the overall race for delegates, there are growing questions over whether he will be able to secure the minimum 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot.

With an expected loss in the Wisconsin primary on April 5, Trump already faced a narrow road to avoid a brokered convention. If his support in national polls doesn’t rebound, that road will become almost impassible.

Up to this point, Trump’s campaign has been predicated, largely, on his lead in the polls. His drop in the Reuters tracking, which he has led throughout the campaign, may force his campaign to alter its message.

The few states remaining to vote are critical to Trump’s hopes of securing the nomination before the convention. How he responds to a possible drop in support, and the reasons behind that drop, may allow him to reboot his campaign. Or, it could foreshadow a long, hot summer in Cleveland this July.


I was interested to hear a discussion among the Fox News talking heads tonight when one of them said that the Trump campaign had disclosed that they would be changing tactics. Trump would act (act is the right word) more presidential, he would give more specifics during his speeches, and would begin to concentrate on issues and policies. In other words, they’re promising that we’d see fewer insulting tweets, less boasting, fewer bombastic promises and finally – he’d give the public a glimpse of the real “presidential” Donald Trump.

Oh, goodie, goodie, I can’t wait to see the new and improved Donald Trump – gotta be better than that pudgy, large-headed, small-mouthed, short-fingered, Cheeto-colored asshole with a bad comb-over that’s been masquerading as Trump.




Categories: Political

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9 replies

  1. >>”…that pudgy, large-headed, small-mouthed, short-fingered, Cheeto-colored asshole with a bad comb-over…”

    LOL! Don’t hold back on saying what you really think, Garnet! 🙂

    Momentum is a HUGE part of the game in politics. Let’s hope Cruz and his team are ready to seize it.


  2. That 4 point difference, as I recall, between Cruz and Trumps is also the confidence level of the poll. 4 points. Loved reading that poll!!! And enjoyed our celebrations last night!


    • I believe you’re right and that’s the reason that some media outlets were (properly) reporting that the candidates were effectively tied. That’s OK, even if Ted’s lead was within the MOE, I still prefer the headlines that state that Ted has the lead!


      • Me too, Garnet.
        Isn’t it amazing how far Cruz has come? No one knew him at first. All the dirt slung on him by Trup, Rubio, Carson? And no news media? They all hate him. And he is moving on up. The people are waking up. Too bad those early voters in all those states hadn’t waited.
        But I still believe the Spirit is at this candidate’s back and he will be the 45th President of the United States of America!


      • I admire your confidence, tannngl!


  3. Grab some popcorn, because this is going to be fun!!


  4. Sounding like a spoiled 5-year old, he’s already accused Cruz of cheating to win in Wisconsin. The new persona will only last until someone says something ugly about him, then the real Trump will be back to business as usual.

    Last night I visited with some friends I hadn’t seen in a while, and up until recently they’ve been among the die-hard Trumpbots. The activities of the last few days is forcing them to rethink their candidate. Here’s hoping it’s a trend.


    • Yeah, his campaign was saying that he was going to morph into “presidential” mode – hah! – that’s a laugh. Immediately after the Wisconsin race being called for Cruz, the campaign released that spoiled 5-year-old kid statement bearing all of the earmarks of Trump’s usual retorts. Same ol’, same ol’.

      I’m glad to hear that your friends are at least questioning Trump’s antics, as you say, “Here’s hoping it’s a trend.”


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